6 octobre 2014 à 13 h 05 min #4578
Here are some thoughts on Ubisoft and the stronger dollar.
Analysts are expecting a turnover of € 1.474 million in the fiscal year 2014/2015, ending March 31st 2015, which is a tad higher than Ubisoft’s estimate of « at least € 1.400 million ».
If we split up the analysts estimates per quarter, we get :
Q1 : 360 (actual figure)
Q2 : 117 (estimate, quarter ending 30/09/2014)
Q3 : 796 (estimate, quarter ending 31/12/2014)
Q4 : 201 (estimate, quarter ending 31/03/2015)
That adds up to the total of € 1.474 million. So far so good.
Q3 (the end of the calendar year) is by far the most important quarter of the year for Ubisoft, in terms of sales. No surprises there.
Now let’s take a look at the EUR USD exchange rate. In Q3 of LAST YEAR (ending 31/12/2013), the EUR USD was around 1.36.
In the first half of this year (2014), the time at which the analysts’ estimates were calculated and Ubisoft confirmed the target, the EUR USD was also around 1.36.
However, due to the improving outlook for the US economy and the deteriorating outlook for Europe, and as a result of the actions of the Central Banks, the EUR USD X-rate has moved to 1.25.
If the exchange rate of the euro stays as low as this (or even lower), this will be very good news for Ubisoft. It will get the same amount of dollars when selling games in the US but that amount will be higher in euro’s.
Approximately 50% of Ubisofts turnover is in dollars. This means € 398 mio in Q3, and € 100 in Q4 (half of the Q3 and Q4 amounts above). These amounts will in reality be 9% higher if the EUR USD exchange rate stabilizes around 1.25. This means that Q3 turnover will be € 36 mio higher and Q4 turnover will be € 9 mio higher.
So, if the dollar stays at this level (1.25), Ubisofts total turnover will be € 1.519 mio instead of € 1.474 mio (if the analysts were right).
I am not sure whether Ubisoft will actually reach this target of € 1.519, but I am certain it will be easier for Ubisoft to reach its intended target of « at least € 1.400 million turnover » if the dollar stays at current levels. As the current quarter (Q3, ending 31/12/2014) is by far the most important one of the fiscal year, Ubisoft will profit more and faster than most other European companies from the strong dollar.
So, unless Ubisoft decides to postpone a triple-A game in the coming months, the outlook for this year has just gotten even better !
6 octobre 2014 à 13 h 06 min #4580
Disclaimer : of course I am looooooooooong Ubisoft 😉
It is no buy or sell advice by any means, do your own homework !!
6 octobre 2014 à 15 h 43 min #4583midsmallParticipant
C’est toi qui a rédigé et si ce n’est pas toi quelle est ta source?
l’estim Q2 vient d’où? ça me parait élevé
In Video Games I trust!
6 octobre 2014 à 17 h 31 min #4585
* blubber co
* plus grand actionnaire d’Ubisoft après la famille Guillemot 😉
* Estimations = moyenne des analystes sur Bloomberg
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