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Mark O’Donnel, l’analyste de JP Morgan, vient de relever son opinion sur Ubisoft, et passe de « hold » (garder) à « overweight » (surpondérer).
Il n’était jamais vraiment négatif sur le titre, mais à cause du risque, il disait toujours « garder ».
Mais maintenant, il a changé d’avis et :C’est une excellente nouvelle !! Parce que :
1) L’OBJECTIF DE COURS PASSE DE 11.5 à 18,50 !!!!!! (+61%)
2) JP MORGAN EST ASSEZ IMPORTANT !!! (BEAUCOUP D’INFLUENCE !)=> plus sur cela dans quelques instants !
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JP MORGAN SAYS :
* We have been too cautious on the company’s cash generation ability over the next years
* We think Ubi can deliver consistent positive free cash flow over the next few years
* Potential upside resulting from
a) increasing digital sales
b) new console cycle
c) Ubi’s ability to leverage its franchises
* Ubisoft offers attractive free cash flow yield of 8,7% 2015 (E) and 11,4% 2016 (E).
* Also, strong sales momentum Watch Dogs, Assassin’s Creed and Far Cry
* Strong 2016 slate with potential to expand its number of successful games franchises
* Ubi might benefit from higher potential back catalogue sales
* Moreover there will be FX benefits (exchange rates)* Analyst says : « while we have missed substantial upside in Ubi shares in 2014, we think there still is still MUCH FURTHER TO GO », hence the upgrade from « hold » to « overweight » and the increase in price target of 60%, from € 11,5 to € 18,5
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Some other interesting points in the JP Morgan report :
JP MORGAN :
* According to JP Morgan, it is very well possible that console sales in the first three years will be as high as the total sales of prev gen consoles in the first FOUR years; the next gen console sales cycle is faster than the previous cycle
* JP Morgan expects number of next gen sales to double next year with 25-30m sold.
* Consoles are not just being replaced, there are NEW markets : Brazil, Russia, Middle East : this will help grow the overall base of consoles
* Digital sales may lead to higher revenue growth (including DLC and FTP), and also to higher margins
* FY sales estimate : € 1.461 mio
* The Division, The Crew, Watch Dogs : increasing number of (high )
potential franchises
* EPS estimate : € 1.01 (2015) and € 1.32 (2016)
=> P/E (C/B) = 15,3 (2015) et seulement 11,7 (2016) avec un cours de € 15,50 !! -
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