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Despite Beat, Take-Two Game Release Uncertainty Gives Analysts Pause
BY Jeff Berman Follow |
02/04/15 – 01:21 PM EST |NEW YORK (The Street) — Investors should be at least a little cautious about Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) stock despite a positive earnings report, analysts say, because of what the company didn’t say about upcoming video game releases.
The game publisher reported stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter ended Dec. 31 and boosted its profit and revenue forecast for this fiscal year late Tuesday, but analysts are cautious because Take-Two continued to provide few details on its coming game release slate, raising doubts about whether it can deliver strong results consistently.
The lack of clarity on Take-Two’s future game releases is an ongoing complaint about the company, Hudson Square Research Principal Daniel Ernst said. Because Take-Two doesn’t release a new title in its hit non-sports game franchises each year, it continues to be difficult for the company’s results to be consistent, he said. « It’s a trade-off, between annualized consistency that holds risk of franchise dilution, vs. longer cycle bigger bets, » he wrote in an email.
On the plus side, Take-Two isn’t quite as dependent on its Grand Theft Auto series as it used to be, said Ernst. PS4 and Xbox One versions of Grand Theft Auto V were released in the fall and became major contributors to third-quarter results.
« While Take-Two has some of the strongest video game franchises, the stock suffers from lack of visibility in the release schedule and choppy earnings, » said Edward Williams, an analyst at Bank of Montreal division BMO Capital Markets, in a research note. Although its earnings can fluctuate greatly depending on what games are being released in the current fiscal year, in general, he expects the company can sustain profitable earnings.
Take-Two used to make $2 in earnings in GTA years and lose 50 cents in years without a release in that series, said Ernst. « Now they are making over $4 in the GTA year, and making well north of a dollar in the off years, » he said. That’s because with two hit sports game franchises now — NBA 2K and WWE 2K — Take-Two is seeing more annual recurring revenue than before, he said. Take-Two also has several strong new non-sports franchises now outside of GTA, including Borderlands, BioShock and a revived Red Dead, he said.
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